by: Omar Ali
I have been busy with other work, but from a distance it seems to me that:
1. Pakistan has accepted that there will be a NATO supported regime in Afghanistan for the foreseeable future, not a jihadi regime.
2. NATO has accepted that Pakistan will be given a “share” in this regime and as long as it fights the hardcore jihadis, will be accomodated in many ways. First and foremost, it will be allowed and even enouraged to present every U-turn as a great victory for the ISI. Secondly the army will not be forced to take too many orders from bloody civilians. Other goodies will probably flow. And India-specific jihadis will not be frontally attacked and no one will have to admit any mistakes or face any public humiliation.
3. Kiyani sahib, thanks to his sensible background (he is the son of a JCO) AND natural intelligence (IQ clearly 20-30 points higher than Musharraf, which means about 60 points higher than the average general) will probably keep his balance, but COAS is a position that is hazardous for mental health. who knows…..
4. The jihadis will not go quietly into the good night. Kiyani sahib probably knows that, but I have the feeling most people will be surprised at how long and hard they will fight.
5. Indian defence analysts (who are really no smarter than Shireen Mazari and company, just playing with a better hand that many of them dont even know they are holding…meaning they think they have a stronger hand because they have more tanks or more people, while in reality, the real superiority lies in being a SHADE better aligned with modern historical trends) will whine and kick and scream…. but Sundeep Dougal tells us that most Indians think less about Pakistan than Pakistanis imagine and THAT may be the thing that saves India. The ones paying attention to this game will frequently draw the wrong conclusions. But most of India will not pay attention and in this fit of absent-mindedness, may find themselves better off than they imagined possible…. Sardarji will make India a real power even though most power fanatics (my apologies to Brahma Chellaney) will think he is selling India cheap and letting Pakistan get away with murder and whatnot..
Courtesy: firstname.lastname@example.org, Thu Mar 11, 2010