U.S., Afghanistan, Pakistan & India – Things are going to go!

by: Omar Ali

In my opinion it is very likely that the Pak army will actually get some of what it is asking for in the short term but their victory will be a Pyrrhic one. The US needs ISI help in Afghanistan and will pressurise India to keep a lower profile. If prime minister, Manmohan Singh is as smart as he seems, he will get whatever he can in other areas and go along with this in spite of whining from the Hindu right and orthodox Indian security hawks. These are not the nineties and ISI may find “victory” harder to manage than defeat. After spending valuable political capital buying this “concession” in Afghanistan, they will find themselves fighting the jihadis and still with no serious influence in the afghan regime. Hikmatyar will sell out his own mother if he has to. “Reconcilable Taliban” are more upset at Pakistan than they are at America. Even Haqqani saheb will not “ride into the valley of death, theirs not to question why”…In the long run, things are going to go where economics and population pressure are driving them. But sardarji has to be patient…If the nuttier factions of the Indian security establishment stick to their tunnel vision, things could become harder than they have to be.

Courtesy: Omar Ali & crdp@yahoogroups.com, Feb 1, 2010

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